In the two weeks leading up to the 2009 Association for the Study of Peak Oil (USA) Conference earlier this month in Denver, you might have noticed a very interesting conversation bubbling up in the blogosphere.

On October 4, Nate Hagens, Editor of the popular website The Oil Drum, launched a provocative piece entitled, “Whither The Oil Drum?” In it, he argues that since 2005, “The % of people acknowledging at least the possibility that we are already passed the peak in global oil production has markedly increased (though it is still a minority overall),” and that The Oil Drum might better serve the wider community by shifting is primary focus from analyzing reserves and depletion rates to integrating information about the economy, other environmental issues, and human psychology.

The very next day, author and subsistence farmer, Sharon Astyk, responded with “Whither Peak Oil?” In this post, Astyk points out that “ASPO and The Oil Drum are much the same – the speakers list tends to be taken heavily from TOD, the institutional elements are the same – and they have the same set of presumptions – that peak oil would be a defining and readily visible moment, in which their expertise would be needed, and that whatever changes would be made, ultimately, they would be driven by technical analysis.”

However, the truth is that since the Summer of 2008, when oil prices reached their all-time high of $147 / barrel, the economic meltdown has eclipsed concerns about peak oil. Building on Hagens’ initial question of what to do post-peak, Astyk seized this opportunity to push the dialogue a bit further: “the problem is not when exactly – we were never going to be able to raise the red flag on that day anyway. The problem is what to do now – and what to do now has always been a complex question.”

Following this thread, three days later, Rob Hopkins, founder of the Transition Movement, offered “Whither Resilience and Transition? Why ‘Peak Oil’ Has Yet to Outlive Its Usefulness.” Here, Hopkins playfully describes the peak oil movement as a “Loch Ness Monster Society,” and, like Hagens and Astyk before him, wonders what will become of that movement now that the legendary monster has washed up on shore.

Instead of judging that peak oil has effectively put analysts out of a job, Hopkins observes that “for many people, the questions have only just begun, and rather than finding themselves redundant, our Loch Ness Monster Society might just find that actually its work has only just begun,” providing sound science to the public and policy recommendations to those in government.

So after all this discussion, what actually happened at ASPO this year? Did the organization whose slogan is “Energy Action for a Healthy Economy and a Clean Environment” take a giant step away from analysis and towards response? The decidedly anti-climactic answer is: sort-of.

Analysis Paralysis

David Murphy observed in his October 28 review: “I have been to every ASPO-USA conference (save the first ever in Denver) and this is the first time that contradiction was so evident.” From the “Chicken Littles” posted outside the Sheraton Hotel handing out copies of “‘Peak Oil’ is a Waste of Energy,” to  informal conversations in the hallways, you could not miss contradiction as a central theme of this year’s conference.

In his Sunday night keynote speech, Dr. Marcio Mello of HRT Petroleum challenged the immediacy of peak oil by asserting that 500 billion barrels of newly-discovered oil lie untapped off the coasts of South America and Africa. Then, the very next night, Matt Simmons, of Simmons and Company, a major energy investment banking firm, argued convincingly that peak oil had already occurred in 2005.

In the session on “Natural Gas Game Changers?” on Monday, Arthur Berman of Labyrinth Consulting Services presented “Cautionary Lessons from the Barnett Shale,” while Edward Warner of the Expedition Oil Company followed him with an entirely different story about the potential of shale gas in “No Guts, No Glory: The Discovery of the Jonah Field.”

In his closing address on Tuesday afternoon, Colorado Governor Bill Ritter dodged the issue of peak oil entirely, calling it “a tricky topic,” while Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, opening the conference on Monday morning, shared with attendees that he had been instrumental in bringing the first ASPO-USA conference to Denver in 2005.

And on and on… While I have to agree with David Murphy’s primary assessment that “It is essential to keep the scope of argumentation at conferences, as well as individual departments or business, broad and open to contradiction,” I also have to wonder if ASPO is becoming stuck in analysis paralysis.

It is not that, as Hopkins has suggested, the study of peak oil has become obsolete, but rather there is a lingering question about whether or not more information will contribute greatly to moving more people into action. If The Denver Post’s article, is any indication, it’s not very likely to.

Show Me the Transition

In this, I consider myself much more closely aligned with Jan Lundberg’s “Culture Change” perspective. The small minority of us who recognize that peak oil is immanent and that its consequences could be severe need to rapidly step up our response. Although discussion of potential responses were not totally absent from the conference, far too much time was spent debating the science and there were some major omissions.

On Tuesday afternoon, during the final panel on “Strategies from the Forefronts of the Transition,” Robert Hirsch, lead author of a landmark report on peak oil for the Department of Energy, made a telling remark. When asked by a conference attendee whether or not the United States government has any plan in place to address the likelihood of future high energy prices and fuel shortages, Hirsch unequivocally answered no. “It’s a political problem,” he said.

In the Executive Summary of The Hirsch Report, its authors boldly concluded: “The peaking of world oil production presents the US and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented.” If policy makers have been unwilling to act thus far on the findings of a report they themselves commissioned, why should we believe that more science will make any difference?

What we need desperately now is a popular, grassroots movement. Fortunately, there already is one. In the past four years, The Transition Movement has grown dramatically from its humble beginnings in the Totnes, England to 245 “official” Transition Initiatives worldwide, including 48 in the US. In addition to these, there are hundreds of other initiatives who have not yet applied for official status but are already working hard to rebuild local resilience and self-reliance in their respective communities.

But except for Richard Heinberg’s talk on Monday afternoon (Heinberg is a member of the Board of Directors of Transition US), there was hardly a mention of Transition at this year’s conference. And although Sunday’s track on “Charting a Sustainable Future” with Pat Murphy, Jason Bradford, and David Wann, was definitely a step in the right direction, it is unlikely that ASPO-USA will reach its full potential until it engages wholeheartedly with the Transition Movement.

Epilogue

It would be foolish to suggest that this group, composed primarily of retired petroleum geologists, give up analyzing reserves and depletion rates to plant gardens and launch local currencies. However, I do believe that there is room for the mission of ASPO-USA to expand to include community efforts, such as the Transition Movement, in addition to “conservation and efficiency, ecologically responsible energy production and consumption, and the development of alternative energy resources.”

We need this Loch Ness Monster Society to carry on with its critical work. We need trustworthy research that we can use to educate the public and serve as the basis for policy recommendations. But we also need to engage millions of ordinary people in responding to the peak oil crisis. ASPO-USA shouldn’t just be for investment bankers and politicians. Collaborating with the Transition Movement could be key to moving forward in 2010.

Bioneers Interviews from Independent Learning on Vimeo.

“A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.”

- Lazarus Long in Robert Heinlein’s Time Enough for Love

You can almost always tell how well-received a presenter is by how long people hang around afterwards. Nearly an hour after Andre Angelantoni’s talk at the Boulder Meadows Community Room earlier this month there was still a group huddled around him, eagerly soliciting his advice.

For good reason. In the wake of $140 a barrel oil last summer, and as the real unemployment rate nears 20%, many are looking for answers to what the future holds. While Andre does not have a crystal ball, he has put together some truly impressive research to help others better understand where our economy is headed, and has recently started a business, Post Peak Living, that is “committed to helping people prepare for peak oil.”

In addition to an acute understanding of the challenges we all face at this point in history, Andre has also demonstrated a deep commitment to developing community-level solutions as a founder of Post Carbon Marin, a chapter of Post Carbon Institute’s now-defunct Relocalization Network.

Indeed, the most striking aspect of Andre’s talk was not his detailed statistics on peak oil or the housing bubble, but rather his suggestions for how to prepare as individuals and families for continued economic hardship.

In speaking about post-peak careers, Andre challenged the audience to consider whether they currently provide a “nice-to-have” or “need-to-have” service for their community. Many jobs providing “nice-to-have” services will evaporate in the near future, as more resources will have to be focused on meeting basic needs, he predicted.

Andre suggested that promising post-peak careers will primarily be highly practical trades such as farmers, welders, electric vehicle retrofitters, carpenters, plumbers, electricians, health practitioners, police, and renewable energy installers. On the other hand, dog walkers, masssage therapists, cosmeticians, luxury goods makers, luxury goods salespeople, jobs that rely on tourism, jobs in higher education, marketing, entertainment, and more are all likely on their way out.

Beyond purely physical preparations, Andre also emphasized the importance of mental and emotional preparation for difficult times ahead. Instead of expecting a continuation of our current standard of living that is without precedent anywhere on the planet,  we could hold a vision of possibility that “a life with less oil could be preferable to the present,” in the words of Transition Movement founder, Rob Hopkins.

When an expectation is thwarted, it typically leads to a feeling of disappointment, while the destruction of one possibility simply leads to the birth of another. In post-peak times, Andre asserted, our greatest asset will be our agility. And in order to be agile, we will need to be mentally and emotionally resilient.

For all of its great value, this introductory presentation was only meant to be a taste of a more in-depth six-session online program, The UnCrash Course, that Andre designed and co-teaches with Dr. Jason Bradford, formerly of Willits Economic Localization, and now with Farmland LP.

As Daniel Lerch of Post Carbon Institute has written: “The UnCrash Course is an incredibly thorough introduction to individual preparedness for life after cheap oil. Andre Angelantoni and Jason Bradford have a deep understanding of the challenges at hand, plus a wealth of practical experience in preparing for the uncertainties that peak oil will bring. If you want to dive head-first into preparing yourself and your household for the worst scenarios of the post-peak world, the UnCrash Course is for you.”

Covering the critical areas of health, skills, food, transportation, finances and shelter, and disaster preparation, two new installments of The UnCrash Course will begin next month: one on Mondays, starting November 2nd (with Jason Bradford), and one on Saturdays, starting November 14th (with Andre Angelantoni).

If you are intrigued by the The UnCrash Course, but still not sure, check out the 50-minute video, “Preparing for a Post Peak Life,” and the “Peak Oil Primer,” offered for free on Post Peak Living’s website.