For this article, I interviewed leaders from six of the most active and successful Transition Initiatives in Colorado, including a major city (Denver), a few small and mid-size towns (Manitou Springs, Louisville, and Lyons), a collection of suburbs (Westminster/Arvada/Broomfield), and a university (Naropa), asking questions such as: “What would you say is your proudest accomplishment?” “What has been the most challenging aspect of your Transition work?” “What advice would you give to someone starting a Transition Initiative in their community?” and “What is your vision for the continued growth of the Transition Movement in Colorado?” The following is what I found.

Most of the work that has been done so far by Transition Initiatives in Colorado has been laying the foundation for Transition in these communities: raising awareness about The Long Emergency and Transition, building relationships with individuals, other nonprofit organizations, local businesses, and local government, and hosting practical Reskilling workshops. This is not surprising, as most of these initiatives are only about a year old. The first Transition Initiatives in the UK, which were founded over four years ago, are just now starting to publish their Energy Descent Action Plans, and only one initiative in the United States, Transition Sandpoint in Idaho, has reached the point of hosting a Great Unleashing event and forming working groups.

Nevertheless, many of the accomplishments made by Transition Initiatives in Colorado during this short period of time are actually quite impressive. Transition Louisville has started a Neighborhood Supported Agriculture program, based on Kipp Nash’s Community Roots Urban Farm in Boulder, hosted a solar home tour in the Fall of 2009, and is working towards bringing carsharing to Louisville—among other activities. Together with the Living Earth Center, the Denver Botanic Gardens, and the Mile High Business Alliance, Transition Denver launched the Grow Local Colorado campaign, which this year planted a garden in Denver’s Civic Center Park, passed a citywide Grow Local proclamation, and was honored with the creation of Grow Local Day by Mayor John Hickenlooper on May 14, 2009.

Transition Westminster/Arvada/Broomfield created the first-ever community Permaculture garden in their region and distributed approximately one ton of produce to members of the Broomfield Presbyterian Church, where the garden was based, volunteers, and a local food bank. They are currently planning a second garden at the Crescent Grange in Broomfield in 2010. Transition Lyons inspired their local Chamber of Commerce to run a month-long Buy Local campaign, which will hopefully be expanded into an ongoing program. And, in the Spring of 2009, Transition Naropa initiated a community market on campus that featured local growers, artisans, artists, healers, free bike tune-ups, and live music. While there is, undoubtably, much more that needs to be done to rebuild local resilience and self-reliance in these communities, these pioneering Transition Initiatives should be celebrated for their already-significant contributions.

Whether they recognize it fully or not, Transition leaders everywhere have committed themselves to work that is both extremely inspiring and outstandingly challenging at the same time. Transition Initiatives have placed themselves at the crossroads of the most complex issues of our time – resource depletion, climate change, and economic crisis – and aspire to completely reinvent all of their most fundamental systems – food, energy, economy, health care, transportation, government, education, and culture—from the bottom-up. In order to do this, Transitions needs to be able to reach across traditional political, religious, and socio-economic divides to unite their communities behind a common vision that is very different from the one currently promoted by mainstream media. Therefore, it is not at all surprising that Transition Initiatives and Transition leaders would encounter difficulties during the course of this highly ambitious journey.

Some of the challenges faced by the various Transition Initiatives in Colorado have been not having enough funding and relying too much on volunteer help, leading to burnout of initiating group members; difficulty in reaching a critical mass of awareness and support, particularly in sprawling suburbs such as Westminster/Arvada/Broomfield; a lack of training in effective group facilitation; and dealing with populations that are transient, overly busy, in denial about the magnitude of the social and environmental problems we face, and highly individualistic with competing hidden agendas. None of this is unusual, as these findings are consistent with what was found by researchers at East Anglia University in England in their 2009 survey of the UK Transition Movement—“The Green Shoots of Sustainability”—available for free online here.

Nevertheless, if these issues continue unaddressed, they are unlikely to resolve themselves. There have been many Transition Initiatives in Colorado and around the world that have never managed to get off the ground or, after a period of great enthusiasm, have gone into decline and ceased to exist. An interesting case study of one such initiative is Transition Oxford, who made it all the way to beginning their Energy Descent Action Plan before disbanding. Fortunately, Transition support organizations, such as Transition Colorado and Transition US, are starting to provide valuable tools for both thriving and struggling Transition Initiatives everywhere.

Two particularly bright spots are Transition Colorado’s Transition Times: Colorado Edition, which offers “Information, Insight, and Inspiration for The Long Emergency,” and the free webinars and conference calls currently being offered by Transition US on topics ranging from “The nitty-gritty of getting Transition rolling in your community” to sessions on group decision-making and managing working groups.

The most consistent piece of advice for those considering taking on this work that I received from the Transition leaders I interviewed had to do with “letting it go where it wants to go.” This principle allows an initiative to evolve naturally in response to changing conditions and the energy of the group. It also points to what is commonly referred to as “The Heart and Soul of Transition.” Transition Manitou Springs Initiator Brian Fritz put it this way:

“For me it really isn’t THAT challenging… I just sort of watch where the energy goes (watch the dynamics of the field) and respond appropriately… Because I don’t have a lot of personal attachment to what occurs in my life these days (which doesn’t mean I am not naturally passionate about what I am naturally drawn to), I don’t feel a lot of stress about ‘making it all happen’… AND I do appreciate watching the unfolding that is occurring…”

Transition Denver’s Dana Miller echoed this same realization: “Trust the process, be willing to start small, realize that creating relationships and friendships is the foundation of a successful project… Take the first few steps and see what comes of it. Don’t overplan… We have a wonderful role to play without having all the answers!” This attitude of non-attachment and trusting the process has enabled many Transition leaders to persevere through the uncertain early stages of the Transition process, effectively engage the interests of those who show up, and balance self-care with the overwhelming amount of work that needs to be done in each community.

Another observation that came up again and again in these interviews was that the greatest joy and motivating factor for staying with the Transition process is the deep relationships that are created along the way. In fact, this kind of community is at the very heart of Transition. Donald Studinski of Transition Westminster/Arvada/Broomfield asserted that “If we choose cooperation and work together, then things can actually be BETTER than what we’ve known in our lives thus far. We can have MORE connection to the earth and to each other, deeper more meaningful relationships. It is possible.” And Margaret Emerson, also of Transition W/A/B, emphasized the larger Transition community that is continuing to grow in Colorado and worldwide, weaving a vast web of interconnection:

“What excites me most about Transition is that it is growing so rapidly worldwide, and that so many people are looking for ways to make a difference in their community. I also love the idea of a more localized economy and closer-knit, more resilient community. Having made so many new friends and acquaintances in the last year has certainly increased my optimism and personal happiness.”

Transition is here to stay in Colorado, not only because of the tireless effort of the thousands of people already involved (there are now over 1,300 members of the Transition Colorado social networking site), but also because it meets a real need in our communities. David Greenwald of Transition Louisville mentioned that “When I look deeply at ‘the long emergency’ that we all face, I always come back to resilience and sustainability at the local level as the most credible response. “ This way of thinking is likely to spread like wildfire in the next few years as conditions continue to change. Several of the Transition leaders that I interviewed expressed that they believe we are rapidly approaching a tipping point of awareness and engagement with Transition. Costen Aytes of Transition Naropa speculated that “As economic conditions worsen for people many will come to the movement out of necessity versus prescience. The movement will be re-invigorated.”

Other visions for the Transition Movement in the years ahead included more classes and workshops offering critical leadership skills, including a revision of the two-day Training for Transition to make it more useful for Transition Initiators. Currently, the training is more of an introduction to the Transition concept than anything else, but it could just as easily serve as a vehicle to provide the tools and practice needed to run more successful Transition Initiatives on the ground. Another powerful idea is the establishment of Transition Centers throughout the state and around the world. These centers could serve as markets for local produce, gathering places for those interested in Transition, event spaces for Transition Initiatives and other nonprofit organizations, and much more—the possibilities are only limited by the confines of our imagination. These centers could become powerful focal points for Transition activity and culture in each community in the future.

Taking a broader outlook, Coco Gordon of Transition Lyons suggested that Transition should “honor those who pioneered what came before: Bioregionalists, Permaculturists, our indigenous elders”—to learn from them and collaborate more with these communities. Wherever Transition happens to go in 2010 and beyond, it is important for us all to remember that, in the words of Transition Westmister/Arvada/Broomfield Initiator Donald Studinski: “This is a marathon, the long emergency, it’s not a sprint. Burn out is real. Set a pace you can handle and just keep trying. Know deep in your soul that eventually, things will work out such that Transition is attractive to people.” Best wishes for the entire Transition community in 2010! Thank you for everything you do and keep up the good work!

In the two weeks leading up to the 2009 Association for the Study of Peak Oil (USA) Conference earlier this month in Denver, you might have noticed a very interesting conversation bubbling up in the blogosphere.

On October 4, Nate Hagens, Editor of the popular website The Oil Drum, launched a provocative piece entitled, “Whither The Oil Drum?” In it, he argues that since 2005, “The % of people acknowledging at least the possibility that we are already passed the peak in global oil production has markedly increased (though it is still a minority overall),” and that The Oil Drum might better serve the wider community by shifting is primary focus from analyzing reserves and depletion rates to integrating information about the economy, other environmental issues, and human psychology.

The very next day, author and subsistence farmer, Sharon Astyk, responded with “Whither Peak Oil?” In this post, Astyk points out that “ASPO and The Oil Drum are much the same – the speakers list tends to be taken heavily from TOD, the institutional elements are the same – and they have the same set of presumptions – that peak oil would be a defining and readily visible moment, in which their expertise would be needed, and that whatever changes would be made, ultimately, they would be driven by technical analysis.”

However, the truth is that since the Summer of 2008, when oil prices reached their all-time high of $147 / barrel, the economic meltdown has eclipsed concerns about peak oil. Building on Hagens’ initial question of what to do post-peak, Astyk seized this opportunity to push the dialogue a bit further: “the problem is not when exactly – we were never going to be able to raise the red flag on that day anyway. The problem is what to do now – and what to do now has always been a complex question.”

Following this thread, three days later, Rob Hopkins, founder of the Transition Movement, offered “Whither Resilience and Transition? Why ‘Peak Oil’ Has Yet to Outlive Its Usefulness.” Here, Hopkins playfully describes the peak oil movement as a “Loch Ness Monster Society,” and, like Hagens and Astyk before him, wonders what will become of that movement now that the legendary monster has washed up on shore.

Instead of judging that peak oil has effectively put analysts out of a job, Hopkins observes that “for many people, the questions have only just begun, and rather than finding themselves redundant, our Loch Ness Monster Society might just find that actually its work has only just begun,” providing sound science to the public and policy recommendations to those in government.

So after all this discussion, what actually happened at ASPO this year? Did the organization whose slogan is “Energy Action for a Healthy Economy and a Clean Environment” take a giant step away from analysis and towards response? The decidedly anti-climactic answer is: sort-of.

Analysis Paralysis

David Murphy observed in his October 28 review: “I have been to every ASPO-USA conference (save the first ever in Denver) and this is the first time that contradiction was so evident.” From the “Chicken Littles” posted outside the Sheraton Hotel handing out copies of “‘Peak Oil’ is a Waste of Energy,” to  informal conversations in the hallways, you could not miss contradiction as a central theme of this year’s conference.

In his Sunday night keynote speech, Dr. Marcio Mello of HRT Petroleum challenged the immediacy of peak oil by asserting that 500 billion barrels of newly-discovered oil lie untapped off the coasts of South America and Africa. Then, the very next night, Matt Simmons, of Simmons and Company, a major energy investment banking firm, argued convincingly that peak oil had already occurred in 2005.

In the session on “Natural Gas Game Changers?” on Monday, Arthur Berman of Labyrinth Consulting Services presented “Cautionary Lessons from the Barnett Shale,” while Edward Warner of the Expedition Oil Company followed him with an entirely different story about the potential of shale gas in “No Guts, No Glory: The Discovery of the Jonah Field.”

In his closing address on Tuesday afternoon, Colorado Governor Bill Ritter dodged the issue of peak oil entirely, calling it “a tricky topic,” while Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, opening the conference on Monday morning, shared with attendees that he had been instrumental in bringing the first ASPO-USA conference to Denver in 2005.

And on and on… While I have to agree with David Murphy’s primary assessment that “It is essential to keep the scope of argumentation at conferences, as well as individual departments or business, broad and open to contradiction,” I also have to wonder if ASPO is becoming stuck in analysis paralysis.

It is not that, as Hopkins has suggested, the study of peak oil has become obsolete, but rather there is a lingering question about whether or not more information will contribute greatly to moving more people into action. If The Denver Post’s article, is any indication, it’s not very likely to.

Show Me the Transition

In this, I consider myself much more closely aligned with Jan Lundberg’s “Culture Change” perspective. The small minority of us who recognize that peak oil is immanent and that its consequences could be severe need to rapidly step up our response. Although discussion of potential responses were not totally absent from the conference, far too much time was spent debating the science and there were some major omissions.

On Tuesday afternoon, during the final panel on “Strategies from the Forefronts of the Transition,” Robert Hirsch, lead author of a landmark report on peak oil for the Department of Energy, made a telling remark. When asked by a conference attendee whether or not the United States government has any plan in place to address the likelihood of future high energy prices and fuel shortages, Hirsch unequivocally answered no. “It’s a political problem,” he said.

In the Executive Summary of The Hirsch Report, its authors boldly concluded: “The peaking of world oil production presents the US and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented.” If policy makers have been unwilling to act thus far on the findings of a report they themselves commissioned, why should we believe that more science will make any difference?

What we need desperately now is a popular, grassroots movement. Fortunately, there already is one. In the past four years, The Transition Movement has grown dramatically from its humble beginnings in the Totnes, England to 245 “official” Transition Initiatives worldwide, including 48 in the US. In addition to these, there are hundreds of other initiatives who have not yet applied for official status but are already working hard to rebuild local resilience and self-reliance in their respective communities.

But except for Richard Heinberg’s talk on Monday afternoon (Heinberg is a member of the Board of Directors of Transition US), there was hardly a mention of Transition at this year’s conference. And although Sunday’s track on “Charting a Sustainable Future” with Pat Murphy, Jason Bradford, and David Wann, was definitely a step in the right direction, it is unlikely that ASPO-USA will reach its full potential until it engages wholeheartedly with the Transition Movement.

Epilogue

It would be foolish to suggest that this group, composed primarily of retired petroleum geologists, give up analyzing reserves and depletion rates to plant gardens and launch local currencies. However, I do believe that there is room for the mission of ASPO-USA to expand to include community efforts, such as the Transition Movement, in addition to “conservation and efficiency, ecologically responsible energy production and consumption, and the development of alternative energy resources.”

We need this Loch Ness Monster Society to carry on with its critical work. We need trustworthy research that we can use to educate the public and serve as the basis for policy recommendations. But we also need to engage millions of ordinary people in responding to the peak oil crisis. ASPO-USA shouldn’t just be for investment bankers and politicians. Collaborating with the Transition Movement could be key to moving forward in 2010.

From David Homlgren's Permaculture Principles

In Permaculture Design, which underpins the Transition Movement, it is commonly said that we should observe our site for at least a year before making dramatic changes. And David Holmgren, one of the co-founders of Permaculture, reminds us to heed the principle of  “Small and Slow Solutions.” But how do we reconcile the wisdom of slowness with the tremendous urgency of our time?

This is a question that I have recently asked several Permaculture teachers who are friends of mine. Although I feel that I never got a fully satisfactory answer from any one of them, an intriguing idea began to emerge from their diverse perspectives: by proceeding at a natural pace and deeply observing the mindscape of our community, we might end up wasting less time overall. You can call it The Tortoise and The Hare Principle if you like.

So what might Slow Leadership look like in practice? I suspect it would start with cultivating authentic community, or “Laying the Foundations,” in the language of the Transition Movement. It would surface the passions of individuals and groups and connect them with work that needs to be done. And it would act as a catalyst, enabling self-organization and community empowerment to tackle the difficult challenges of peak oil, climate change, and economic crisis.  

This is definitely easier said that done. For many reasons, we may begin to believe that we have all the answers and that anyone who doesn’t agree with us must be wrong. We may try to control our creations when they really needs to be left a little wild. And we may chase after funding or compromise ourselves to meet the unrealistic expectations of others.

By saying this, I am not trying to propose that there is a right and a wrong way to lead. Neither am I trying to start a war between an old paradigm, based primarily on hierarchy and control, and a new one, based on equality and self-organization. Both approaches have gifts to offer us if we are open to receiving them. What I am saying is that we are already very familiar with Fast Leadership, and maybe it is time to give Slow Leadership its due.

“A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.”

- Lazarus Long in Robert Heinlein’s Time Enough for Love

You can almost always tell how well-received a presenter is by how long people hang around afterwards. Nearly an hour after Andre Angelantoni’s talk at the Boulder Meadows Community Room earlier this month there was still a group huddled around him, eagerly soliciting his advice.

For good reason. In the wake of $140 a barrel oil last summer, and as the real unemployment rate nears 20%, many are looking for answers to what the future holds. While Andre does not have a crystal ball, he has put together some truly impressive research to help others better understand where our economy is headed, and has recently started a business, Post Peak Living, that is “committed to helping people prepare for peak oil.”

In addition to an acute understanding of the challenges we all face at this point in history, Andre has also demonstrated a deep commitment to developing community-level solutions as a founder of Post Carbon Marin, a chapter of Post Carbon Institute’s now-defunct Relocalization Network.

Indeed, the most striking aspect of Andre’s talk was not his detailed statistics on peak oil or the housing bubble, but rather his suggestions for how to prepare as individuals and families for continued economic hardship.

In speaking about post-peak careers, Andre challenged the audience to consider whether they currently provide a “nice-to-have” or “need-to-have” service for their community. Many jobs providing “nice-to-have” services will evaporate in the near future, as more resources will have to be focused on meeting basic needs, he predicted.

Andre suggested that promising post-peak careers will primarily be highly practical trades such as farmers, welders, electric vehicle retrofitters, carpenters, plumbers, electricians, health practitioners, police, and renewable energy installers. On the other hand, dog walkers, masssage therapists, cosmeticians, luxury goods makers, luxury goods salespeople, jobs that rely on tourism, jobs in higher education, marketing, entertainment, and more are all likely on their way out.

Beyond purely physical preparations, Andre also emphasized the importance of mental and emotional preparation for difficult times ahead. Instead of expecting a continuation of our current standard of living that is without precedent anywhere on the planet,  we could hold a vision of possibility that “a life with less oil could be preferable to the present,” in the words of Transition Movement founder, Rob Hopkins.

When an expectation is thwarted, it typically leads to a feeling of disappointment, while the destruction of one possibility simply leads to the birth of another. In post-peak times, Andre asserted, our greatest asset will be our agility. And in order to be agile, we will need to be mentally and emotionally resilient.

For all of its great value, this introductory presentation was only meant to be a taste of a more in-depth six-session online program, The UnCrash Course, that Andre designed and co-teaches with Dr. Jason Bradford, formerly of Willits Economic Localization, and now with Farmland LP.

As Daniel Lerch of Post Carbon Institute has written: “The UnCrash Course is an incredibly thorough introduction to individual preparedness for life after cheap oil. Andre Angelantoni and Jason Bradford have a deep understanding of the challenges at hand, plus a wealth of practical experience in preparing for the uncertainties that peak oil will bring. If you want to dive head-first into preparing yourself and your household for the worst scenarios of the post-peak world, the UnCrash Course is for you.”

Covering the critical areas of health, skills, food, transportation, finances and shelter, and disaster preparation, two new installments of The UnCrash Course will begin next month: one on Mondays, starting November 2nd (with Jason Bradford), and one on Saturdays, starting November 14th (with Andre Angelantoni).

If you are intrigued by the The UnCrash Course, but still not sure, check out the 50-minute video, “Preparing for a Post Peak Life,” and the “Peak Oil Primer,” offered for free on Post Peak Living’s website.