Prologue

In the two weeks leading up to the 2009 Association for the Study of Peak Oil (USA) Conference earlier this month in Denver, you might have noticed a very interesting conversation bubbling up in the blogosphere.

On October 4, Nate Hagens, Editor of the popular website The Oil Drum, launched a provocative piece entitled, “Whither The Oil Drum?” In it, he argues that since 2005, “The % of people acknowledging at least the possibility that we are already passed the peak in global oil production has markedly increased (though it is still a minority overall),” and that The Oil Drum might better serve the wider community by shifting is primary focus from analyzing reserves and depletion rates to integrating information about the economy, other environmental issues, and human psychology.

The very next day, author and subsistence farmer, Sharon Astyk, responded with “Whither Peak Oil?” In this post, Astyk points out that “ASPO and The Oil Drum are much the same – the speakers list tends to be taken heavily from TOD, the institutional elements are the same – and they have the same set of presumptions – that peak oil would be a defining and readily visible moment, in which their expertise would be needed, and that whatever changes would be made, ultimately, they would be driven by technical analysis.”

However, the truth is that since the Summer of 2008, when oil prices reached their all-time high of $147 / barrel, the economic meltdown has eclipsed concerns about peak oil. Building on Hagens’ initial question of what to do post-peak, Astyk seized this opportunity to push the dialogue a bit further: “the problem is not when exactly – we were never going to be able to raise the red flag on that day anyway. The problem is what to do now – and what to do now has always been a complex question.”

Following this thread, three days later, Rob Hopkins, founder of the Transition Movement, offered “Whither Resilience and Transition? Why ‘Peak Oil’ Has Yet to Outlive Its Usefulness.” Here, Hopkins playfully describes the peak oil movement as a “Loch Ness Monster Society,” and, like Hagens and Astyk before him, wonders what will become of that movement now that the legendary monster has washed up on shore.

Instead of judging that peak oil has effectively put analysts out of a job, Hopkins observes that “for many people, the questions have only just begun, and rather than finding themselves redundant, our Loch Ness Monster Society might just find that actually its work has only just begun,” providing sound science to the public and policy recommendations to those in government.

So after all this discussion, what actually happened at ASPO this year? Did the organization whose slogan is “Energy Action for a Healthy Economy and a Clean Environment” take a giant step away from analysis and towards response? The decidedly anti-climactic answer is: sort-of.

Analysis Paralysis

David Murphy observed in his October 28 review: “I have been to every ASPO-USA conference (save the first ever in Denver) and this is the first time that contradiction was so evident.” From the “Chicken Littles” posted outside the Sheraton Hotel handing out copies of “‘Peak Oil’ is a Waste of Energy,” to  informal conversations in the hallways, you could not miss contradiction as a central theme of this year’s conference.

In his Sunday night keynote speech, Dr. Marcio Mello of HRT Petroleum challenged the immediacy of peak oil by asserting that 500 billion barrels of newly-discovered oil lie untapped off the coasts of South America and Africa. Then, the very next night, Matt Simmons, of Simmons and Company, a major energy investment banking firm, argued convincingly that peak oil had already occurred in 2005.

In the session on “Natural Gas Game Changers?” on Monday, Arthur Berman of Labyrinth Consulting Services presented “Cautionary Lessons from the Barnett Shale,” while Edward Warner of the Expedition Oil Company followed him with an entirely different story about the potential of shale gas in “No Guts, No Glory: The Discovery of the Jonah Field.”

In his closing address on Tuesday afternoon, Colorado Governor Bill Ritter dodged the issue of peak oil entirely, calling it “a tricky topic,” while Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, opening the conference on Monday morning, shared with attendees that he had been instrumental in bringing the first ASPO-USA conference to Denver in 2005.

And on and on… While I have to agree with David Murphy’s primary assessment that “It is essential to keep the scope of argumentation at conferences, as well as individual departments or business, broad and open to contradiction,” I also have to wonder if ASPO is becoming stuck in analysis paralysis.

It is not that, as Hopkins has suggested, the study of peak oil has become obsolete, but rather there is a lingering question about whether or not more information will contribute greatly to moving more people into action. If The Denver Post’s article, is any indication, it’s not very likely to.

Show Me the Transition

In this, I consider myself much more closely aligned with Jan Lundberg’s “Culture Change” perspective. The small minority of us who recognize that peak oil is immanent and that its consequences could be severe need to rapidly step up our response. Although discussion of potential responses were not totally absent from the conference, far too much time was spent debating the science and there were some major omissions.

On Tuesday afternoon, during the final panel on “Strategies from the Forefronts of the Transition,” Robert Hirsch, lead author of a landmark report on peak oil for the Department of Energy, made a telling remark. When asked by a conference attendee whether or not the United States government has any plan in place to address the likelihood of future high energy prices and fuel shortages, Hirsch unequivocally answered no. “It’s a political problem,” he said.

In the Executive Summary of The Hirsch Report, its authors boldly concluded: “The peaking of world oil production presents the US and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented.” If policy makers have been unwilling to act thus far on the findings of a report they themselves commissioned, why should we believe that more science will make any difference?

What we need desperately now is a popular, grassroots movement. Fortunately, there already is one. In the past four years, The Transition Movement has grown dramatically from its humble beginnings in the Totnes, England to 245 “official” Transition Initiatives worldwide, including 48 in the US. In addition to these, there are hundreds of other initiatives who have not yet applied for official status but are already working hard to rebuild local resilience and self-reliance in their respective communities.

But except for Richard Heinberg’s talk on Monday afternoon (Heinberg is a member of the Board of Directors of Transition US), there was hardly a mention of Transition at this year’s conference. And although Sunday’s track on “Charting a Sustainable Future” with Pat Murphy, Jason Bradford, and David Wann, was definitely a step in the right direction, it is unlikely that ASPO-USA will reach its full potential until it engages wholeheartedly with the Transition Movement.

Epilogue

It would be foolish to suggest that this group, composed primarily of retired petroleum geologists, give up analyzing reserves and depletion rates to plant gardens and launch local currencies. However, I do believe that there is room for the mission of ASPO-USA to expand to include community efforts, such as the Transition Movement, in addition to “conservation and efficiency, ecologically responsible energy production and consumption, and the development of alternative energy resources.”

We need this Loch Ness Monster Society to carry on with its critical work. We need trustworthy research that we can use to educate the public and serve as the basis for policy recommendations. But we also need to engage millions of ordinary people in responding to the peak oil crisis. ASPO-USA shouldn’t just be for investment bankers and politicians. Collaborating with the Transition Movement could be key to moving forward in 2010.