Keeping a watchful eye for signs, signals, sea-changes, and shifting patterns:

Energy Crisis May Cripple Pakistan by Jan. 15

The News International, Jan. 5

ISLAMABAD: The country may plunge into the worst imaginable energy crisis as virtually all refineries are teetering on the verge of financial default and may close down operations by Jan 15.

All the oil refineries of the country, currently working on a negative gross revenue margin, and with their borrowing limits already exhausted, are likely to shut down within the next two weeks following their expected default to retire the existing L/Cs to import crude oil. The shutdown would mean no oil supplies for thermal power generation plants and the picture turns outright dark.

This harrowing scenario of the looming crisis was given to The News by a senior functionary of the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources, speaking on condition of anonymity… (full story here)

How Russia Is About to Dramatically Change the World

The Trumpet, Jan. 5

by Robert Morley

Over the next few days, Russia will change the world. It has completed a new oil pipeline and port complex that sets Russia up to become a more powerful oil exporter than Saudi Arabia. The ramifications for Europe and Asia are profound: The shape of the global economy—and the global balance of power—will be altered forever.

December 28 was a big day of ceremony in Russia. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin pushed a button that transformed global oil dynamics—especially for Asia and Europe. The button released thousands of barrels of Siberian crude into a waiting Russian supertanker and heralded the opening of Russia’s first modern Pacific-based oil export facilities.

The multibillion-dollar, state-of-the-art oil terminal was a “great New Year present for Russia,” Putin said during the inauguration. The strategic terminal, located in the city of Kozmino on the coast of the Sea of Japan, is one of the “biggest projects in contemporary Russia” he said, not only in “modern Russia, but the former Soviet Union too.”

Putin has every right to be enthusiastic about his new port. Kozmino will unlock a two-way gate through which Russia’s vast Siberian oilfields will gush into Asia’s energy-hungry economies—and Chinese, Korean and Japanese currency will flow into Russia… (full story here)

Michael Ruppert: Something Evil This Way Comes

From the Wilderness’ Peak Oil Blog, Jan. 3

As I write, the world is falling apart. Military forces from all major powers are flooding the Gulf of Aden, using piracy and terrorism as a pretext. This is all jockeying in anticipation of a major, and possibly total, war in and around the Persian Gulf — where 60% of the planet’s known oil is. Pakistan is imploding. Within days it will face a “worst possible” energy crisis and, according to Pakistani news sources, trigger massive civil unrest. Pakistan has failed. An Israeli and/or U.S. attack on Iran is now, no longer unthinkable. Just recently, Israel recalled all its ambassadors and charges d’affaires simultaneously for what (sure looked to me) was an emergency huddle. Major power shortages are crippling nations from the Phillipines, to Vietnam, to India, throughout the Caspian and especially Pakistan. Cities in many countries (including the USnd Britain) are selectively turning out streetlights that will never come back on because they can’t afford the cost. The world is starting to shut down.

Sovereign default is a threat throughout Europe and especially in Greece and the United Kingdom. There are signs that the U.S. economy has started to implode. I will join my good friend, the brilliant James Howard Kunstler, in predicting a DOW at 4,000 in 2010… (full story here)

Heads in the Sand? Or, Why Don’t Governments Talk about Peak Oil?

The Oil Drum, Jan. 5

by Shane Mulligan

…It is clear that peak oil presents an immense challenge in terms of governance, a challenge that seems to have precluded its uptake in policy and governance circles. This does not mean that states and their leaders are not aware of the problem, although many individuals within governments may not be. If governments are aware, as seems likely, their silence may mean that they fear that the public consumption of the scale of the problem may generate more problems than it solves. It may mean that there is a widespread cognitive barrier to examining the problem and prospects, and (in part as a result) they really don’t know what to do.

However, it may also be the case that they are well aware of the problem and are indeed pursuing actions to meet it, in a way; but the distasteful nature of the response requires that the real reasons for decisions be hidden from view. The pillage of Iraq and Afghanistan, the wholesale robbery of the public in order to enrich capitalist classes, and the pretence of “saving the planet” – and the polar bears – may all be seen as unfortunate necessities for power structures seeking to preserve themselves under difficult circumstances.

If political actors seem to be acting with an awareness of peak oil, the fact that they don’t discuss it is relevant only on that it stands as evidence that not discussing it is part of the policy response. (Ignorance is strength, or some such thing.) But whether sticking our heads in the sand will make the challenges of peak oil any easier for governments – let alone the rest of us – remains to be seen. (full story here)