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CLIMATE CHANGE: 350 or Bust

The Shot Heard Round the World

350mandalaThe images are deeply inspiring: schoolchildren in the Dominican Republic, the Phillipines, and India, horsemen in Mongolia, mountain climbers in Antarctica,  scuba divers off the Great Barrier Reef, soccer fans in Mexico, elephants in the Okavango Delta, a lone woman in Iraq, and crowds assembled in nearly every major city around the world, all rallying together under a single banner.

What could have possibly brought about such a diverse and powerful movement? On October 24, 2009, a mind-boggling 5,200 actions took place in 181 countries on every continent. CNN has since called it “The most widespread day of political action in the planet’s history.” But even more remarkable than the sheer size of this global event is that it occurred under the banner of a previously little-known scientific data point.

According to the non-profit organization that served as the catalyst for this International Day of Climate Action: “350 is the most important number in the world – it’s what scientists say is the safe upper limit for carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.” The brainchild of environmental activist and author, Bill McKibben, 350.org was founded in 2007 as “an international campaign dedicated to building a movement to unite the world around solutions to the climate crisis.”

The idea is simple: to inspire grassroots action and gather iconic images of  people rallying around the world to raise awareness about the severity of the climate crisis and influence policy makers to take bold steps to address the issue of global warming. The core message that 350.org and its hundreds of partner organizations hope to convey  is “the solutions to climate change must be equitable, they must be grounded in science, and they must meet the scale of the crisis.”

The Scale of the Crisis

While this year’s International Day of Climate Action was an important wake-up call, climate campaigners still have their work cut out for them if they are to achieve their goal to “meet the scale of the crisis.” Currently, the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere is 387 parts per million (ppm) and rising at a rate of 2 ppm per year. Not only are emissions in the developed world continuing to grow, but developing countries, most notably China and India, are threatening to overwhelm the climate system in their drive to develop a first-world standard of living.

According to the world’s best scientists, the consequences of not grappling with this problem are severe: “unless we are able to rapidly return to 350 ppm this century, we risk reaching tipping points and irreversible impacts such as the melting of the Greenland ice sheet and major methane releases from increased permafrost melt.” This likely means increased drought and heat waves, declining agricultural productivity, sea level rises leaving coastal cities partially underwater, millions of climate refugees, and an increase in the prevalence of  infectious diseases.

In a report by the United Nations Environment Program released in late September, researchers found that “the planet will warm by 6.3 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century even if the world’s leaders fulfill their most ambitious climate pledges, a much faster and broader scale of change than forecast just two years ago.” And this optimistic analysis assumes that the United States and the European Union will both make good on their pledges to reduce carbon emissions by nearly 80% by  2050.

Even more troubling news comes from a 2009 study, conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, that shows more and more people are beginning to doubt evidence of global warming. Currently, only 36% of Americans now believe that “global temperatures are rising as a result of human activity, such as burning fossil fuels.” This number is down from 47% the previous year, despite widespread scientific consensus on the issue, as demonstrated by the 2007 report of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

So where can we find hope for change amidst all this discouraging information? Many are working on voluntary efforts, such as the 10:10 campaign in the UK, in which individuals and businesses are pledging to reduce their emissions 10% in 2010. Others are focusing on small-scale legislative initiatives, such as the US Mayors’ Climate Protection Agreement and the American College and Universities Presidents’ Climate Commitment. Still others, including 350.org, are hoping to hit a home-run with a new international climate treaty at the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen this December.

Copenhagen Hopenhagen

At the world premier of the docudrama, “The Age of Stupid,” this September, luminaries such as Kofi Annan, former Secretary General of the United Nations, R. K. Pachauri, Chairman of the IPCC, Mohamed Nasheed, President of the Maldives, and Ed Milliband, Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change in the UK, all seemed to be placing their eggs in the Copenhagen basket.

Lead organizer for the Copenhagen conference, Connie Hedegaard, has warned: “If the whole world comes to Copenhagen and leaves without making the needed political agreement, then I think it’s a failure that is not just about climate. Then it’s the whole global democratic system not being able to deliver results in one of the defining challenges of our century. And that is and should not be a possibility. It’s not an option.”

But despite all the attention that has been placed on Copenhagen, it now appears that the world’s largest international climate conference, to be attended by leaders from 192 countries, will not bear fruit. In an article published in the New York Times on November 14, “Leaders Will Delay Deal on Climate Change,” it was announced that the new goal for the Copenhagen summit is  “a less specific ‘politically binding’ agreement that would punt the most difficult issues into the future.”

So with the conference that has been dubbed “Hopenhagen” by many proving to be yet another in a long string of disappointments, where to now? Clearly, something must be done, and fast, if we are to avoid climate catastrophe. If our leaders are not going to take the necessary action, all of us are going to have to take up their slack.

Fostering a Low-Carbon Culture

All efforts are needed. We need all hands on deck for this planetary emergency. But while certainly we need individual actions, such as those proposed by the 10:10 campaign, and political efforts, such as the Copenhagen conference, there is also another approach to addressing the climate crisis that has not been fully explored: what we can do as communities.

At the level of community, we can begin to change culture, which is perhaps the only thing that is equal to the scale of this crisis. Our local communities are also where we can exert the greatest leverage. At the level of community, we can engage all sectors of society in initiatives that are more constructive and directly rewarding than simply changing our light-bulbs or signing another petition.

Rob Hopkins, the founder of the worldwide Transition Movement, has already written on the need to build on the 350 idea but move beyond “purely symbolic actions.” He suggests that Transitioners around the world might organize planting 350 walnut trees, installing 350 solar panels, or persuading 350 people to commit to using their local currency. I would add to this list forming a coalition with 350 local businesses and non-profits to sponsor a bike-to-work program, planting 350 new edible gardens throughout a city, and training a team of volunteers to perform 350 home energy retrofitts.

In his opening address to the 2009 Bioneers Conference, Kenny Ausubel related Chief Oren Lyons of the Iroquois Six Nation’s distillation of our current crisis as “value change for survival.” In order to address the climate crisis on the scale that is needed, with the urgency that is needed, we all need to able take personal responsibility for the future and act upon our convictions. Taking this one step further, Hopkins often asks the unaskable question: “What would it look like if we went to bed each day having sequestered more carbon that we produced?”

Moving forward from this historic International Day of Climate Action, we need to be able to ask the big questions of ourselves and our communities. We need to come together in dialogue with each other about what achieving carbon neutrality will take, and we how each of us as individuals can contribute our many talents to the cause. We need to harness the awareness and energy that has been generated around the world and move quickly into practical action. Clearly, we can’t wait for governments to solve this problem for us. We need to fight climate change as if everything depends on it, because it does.

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